Recently, renowned Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff reflected on his 2018 prediction about Bitcoin, admitting to a significant misjudgment. At that time, he believed that Bitcoin was more likely to fall to $100 rather than rise to $100,000. However, the reality has proven his prediction to be far from the actual situation.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin has surpassed $113,000, an increase of more than 10 times compared to 2018. Professor Rogoff admitted that he was overly optimistic about the regulatory outlook for cryptocurrencies in the United States, while also severely underestimating the role that Bitcoin plays in the global underground economy, which is approximately $20 trillion in scale.

Rogoff also made sharp criticisms of the current cryptocurrency regulatory framework. He pointed out that there is a clear conflict of interest between regulators and cryptocurrencies. Some regulators are said to hold hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in cryptocurrency assets, yet have not faced any punishment or restrictions because of it. This phenomenon has raised questions about the fairness and effectiveness of regulation.

This event once again highlights the complexity and unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market. Even top economists find it difficult to accurately predict its direction, which not only reflects the power of technological innovation but also reveals the limitations of traditional economic theories in the face of emerging financial forms. As cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin continue to play an increasingly important role in the global economy, establishing effective regulatory mechanisms to balance innovation and risk will become a major challenge for governments and economists around the world.