Recently, there has been much speculation in the market about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, but the final decision still rests with the Federal Reserve. Setting aside uncertainties, let us focus on some matters that are more certain.

On May 22, 2026, Powell will step down as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. At that time, the new president is likely to appoint someone who is more inclined towards loose monetary policy to take over. This will lead to a significant change in the Federal Reserve's decision-making tendencies, and interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion policies may be introduced.

Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market may usher in a new bull market. Bitcoin is expected to rise significantly, and mainstream cryptocurrencies like Ethereum may also follow suit. At the same time, some smaller cryptocurrencies with good fundamentals but have recently seen substantial declines may also experience notable gains, making them worthy of investors' attention.

Historically, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve usually triggers a series of market reactions: the U.S. dollar index falls, U.S. Treasury bonds rise, and the U.S. stock market initially declines before rising. The price of Bitcoin often correlates with the movements of the U.S. stock market, so when the Nasdaq index may pull back to around 20,000 points, it could be a good opportunity to enter the market.

However, if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates for the time being, the market may slowly shift towards a bear market. In this case, investors might wait for a deep market correction before gradually building positions in preparation for the potential interest rate cut scenario in June next year.

It is worth noting that the current bear market under the current market conditions may differ from previous severe downturns and instead exhibit atypical characteristics. The traditional four-year bull-bear cycle has been broken, and Bitcoin prices are increasingly influenced by the cycles of the US stock market.

In the current situation, neither completely waiting on the sidelines for a significant drop to buy the dip nor fully investing in the belief that interest rates will inevitably decrease is a wise move. Investors should adopt a more balanced investment strategy based on their own risk tolerance.

This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Before making any investment decisions, investors should fully assess their own risk tolerance and conduct in-depth market research.