August 15 Market Daily Report

A pullback before interest rate cuts presents an opportunity, with altcoins focusing on two major directions.

1. Market Performance

- Yesterday: ETH fell from a recent high of 4788 to 4450, with a manageable decline; altcoins generally dropped about 10%, with no significant panic.
- Today: ETH and doge, ltc, uni, etc. quickly repaired their declines, highlighting the scarcity of low-priced chips, which need to be cherished.

2. Causes of the Decline

1. Bessenet's contradictory statement: Initially claimed not to purchase and seize assets, later changed to exploring an expansion of reserves, but the market is skeptical about its cryptocurrency reserve policy.
2. PPI data exceeded expectations: The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has disappeared, with CME showing a 92.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, and the market rebounded after removing inflated expectations.

Three, core judgment

- The pullbacks before interest rate cuts are all opportunities to get in, and attention should be paid to the support levels of selected coins.
- The interest rate cut in September is highly likely to take place, the trend remains unchanged, and listed companies are taking the opportunity to collect chips and raise the average cost, which does not affect the overall market.

4. Shanzhai Direction

- Current situation: This round has not seen the past "blooming everywhere" due to the diversion of funds by crypto consortia and ETFs, but institutional reports suggest growth in stablecoins and increased inflows into Ethereum, indicating that liquidity may surpass that of the first half of the year.
- Key Points: Focus on the two major directions of "ETF applications" and "consortium reserves," seize the liquidity dividend, and it is currently not yet the season for a full-scale altcoin surge.